DawgStats Preview of the South Carolina Matchup

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DawgStats Preview of the South Carolina Matchup

Georgia and South Carolina show eerily similar numbers on the offensive side of the ball. Success Rate is almost identical at 40.5% and 40.4% which are 12th and 13th in SEC only ahed of Vanderbilt. Looking at a 4 game trend doesn’t do much to show that either offense is trending in the right direction. Dawgs’s Success Rate against MSU was still only 36% and against Gators, the offense was held to 25% success rate. UGA only had a 20% rush success rate on Saturday.

Texas A&M held USC to a success rate of 22% on offense. Gamecocks only got north of 40% success rate versus Ole Miss in the last month. That was their most efficient game of the season.

While the Dawgs’ rushing attack was stymied by the Bulldogs, the passing attack led the way. It was the offense’s high passing rate of the season at 66% and 45% success rate. That led to an offensive explosiveness of 2.04. This was far and away the most explosive the UGA offense has been all season. Gamecocks’ most explosive games topped out at 1.6 versus Vandy and Ole Miss.

By looking up Clark Brooks’ offensive concept data he publishes on SECStatCat.com, you can see that a significant portion of both UGA and USC’s offense comes from Inside Zone Runs. UGA has run these 120+ plays for over 600 yards and 4.8 yards per attempt with a 50% success rate

USC has run Inside Zone Read and Inside Power concepts on 110 plays. Gamecocks have a lower success rate on these runs, but a higher YPC at 5.5 yards. But, as much as UGA’s defense has been suspect against the pass, they are only allowing a success rate of 39% against these concepts.

UGA does separate itself from USC on the Defensive side of the ball. The offense should be able to move the ball against the Gamecocks defense. USC allowing rushing and passing success rates greater than 47%. Against Inside Zones, USC is allowing 54% success rate and 5.9 YPC on 100+ plays.

Again using SEC Stat Cat concepts, UGA’s most successful concept is the “flood.” They run play action from this in addition to successful plays over the middle. 31 passes used this play with 58% Success Rate and 14.8 yards per completion.

UGA’s defense has regressed in some metrics, including Explosiveness allowed. UGA was 2nd in SEC in 2019 and now is 7th in 2020. Notable are short passes have not been covered well by the linebackers. If USC can get playmakers 1 on 1 against our Linebacker before Dawgs can pressure the QB, this game might get uncomfortably close.

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UGA, Grady Alum, and numbers geek. Looking at Football Analytics though the eyes of a Dawg Fan.