If you’ve clicked on this, you already know what you are in for.. lies, damn lies, and statistics. But, here you are. Lance is right here with us looking at the game within the game.. numbers. I was literally crunching, sorting, and organizing the metrics from two weeks of SEC play at that very moment.
Here we go. I pair most of these with offensive and defensive numbers. Here are the SEC teams ranked by offensive and defensive success rates. It’s easy to just look at the top teams. But, numbers are relative. Teams that have the highest offensive metrics and do not have a quality defense are deficient against quality opponents. If you take the Total NET EPA for Playoff Teams – the team with higher Net EPA is 13-5. Oklahoma always brings a prolific offense, but the defense hasn’t been playoff caliber. LSU v OU’s Net EPA was +240. OSU v Clemson had Buckeyes with just a 10+ Net EPA. Clemson v LSU NET EPA was LSU +20.
Success Rate is base level measurement of efficiency. Explosiveness is key to winning. The team with a higher Success Rate wins 83% of games, but the team with higher explosiveness wins 87% of games. Clearly the two are correlated.
Analytics measure every play. From a simple determination of “success” or “unsuccessful.” EPA is a measurement that ascribes a point value to every play based on the beginning down, distance , and field position and the resulting down, distance, and field position. EPA is the average of these numbers and the Total EPA (remember OU) is the sum of each play. One needs to calculate the Offense and Defense to judge a team. Florida is off to a very hot start on offense. But that defense… I’ll test your math and let you calculate the Net Total EPA for Dawgs and Gators… (Alabama is still on top)
I am going to end with some offense stats broken down between rushing and passing. Passing offense is expected to be more “efficient” and will result with an higher EPA. But, rushing tends to trend to a higher success rate. An unperfected compassion would be three pointers in basketball. UGA have always rushed the ball with high volume. But, very early trends show that a more balanced approach could be in store for the 2020 Dawgs