DawgStats vs. GatorStats… a tale of two tales

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DawgStats vs. GatorStats… a tale of two tales

So, earlier in the week, I posted a graphic of UGA and UF’s Success Rates on offense; if you missed it, CLICK HERE.  Both teams are efficient on offense.  In fact, UF ranks (6.3) behind UGA (7.3) in YPP.  But, here is a graphic that shows those stats matched against what SEC teams have done against UGA and UF’s defense.

Rushing is a key metric to watch here.  Here are their yards per attempt against SEC Opponents:

  • Kentucky 5.1
  • Tennessee 3.5
  • Auburn 4.0
  • LSU 3.7
  • South Carolina 5.1

UGA Defense stout against the run, allowing SEC opponents just 3.8 YPA

Clearly Gators are more efficient through the air. Not only are they getting 8.2 YPA, but Pass Success Rates on all downs are over 50%. Dawgs are stingy, Pass Success Rates allowed:

  • 37% on 1st Down 
  • 28% on 2nd Down
  • 24% on 3rd Down

UF has only gone over 6.0 YPP in conference games against UT and UK.  That UT game was back on September 21.  Gators yards per play:

  • Auburn 5.5
  • LSU 5.4
  • South Carolina 5.6

Looking at UGA on offense when UF has the ball

Dawgs match Gator Pass YPA at 8.2.  But, the elephant in the room would be the recent performance.  Since the Arkansas State game where they went for 11.8 YPA, Dawgs yards per attempt passing:

  • Notre Dame 7.2
  • Tennessee 9.9
  • South Carolina 5.7
  • Kentucky 2.9

It is worth noting that while YPA is on a downward trend, yards per reception is not as dire

  • Notre Dame 9.4
  • Tennessee 12.0
  • South Carolina 10.5
  • Kentucky 3.9

Dawgs lead the SEC in Rushing, and they definitely are committed to running the ball.  UGA attempted 40 or more rushes against all opponents except Arkansas State and Notre Dame. Against Vandy, UGA gutted the ‘Dores for 8.1 YPA.  Here are Rushing YPA’s since:

  • Notre Dame 4.6
  • Tennessee 5.8
  • South Carolina 4.0
  • Kentucky 5.5

Dawgs have not been as efficient the last two games as they were prior to that dreadful USC game.  Against USC and UK, UGA has averaged 4.9 YPP.  In this, stats and eye test tell us the same thing – Dawgs need to be better.  But there is plenty of recent history in the Fromm and Smart era that these last two games are outliers.  UGA has the skill and coaching to get back on track offensively.

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UGA, Grady Alum, and numbers geek. Looking at Football Analytics though the eyes of a Dawg Fan.